Betting Value Engine

Backtest #5

Run key: 80872a5d-b1d0-469b-963f-a54a331994c5 · Stav: completed · 21.08.2026 14:27:53

Diagnostický report fáze 2.5 zatím nebyl vytvořen. Spouští se příkazem php artisan football-data:diagnose --run=5.

Eligible events15787
Predictions31574
Paper bets8174
ROI-5,26 %

Dataset a metodika

Modelfootball-ou25-poisson-v1
SoutěžeE0, E1, D1, SP1, I1, F1
Sezony1920, 2021, 2122, 2223, 2324, 2425, 2526
Provider dataset hash1f3142723dc859f38bda127604988247cb39fb8404c0e88c82710d5e1ec2d383
Warm-up5 předchozích zápasů týmu
Reference oddsFootball-Data Avg O/U 2.5 opening pair; closing Avg pair is used only for market closing movement.
Exclusionswarm-up 534, chybějící reference odds 2

Prediction quality vs market baseline

MetricPoisson v1Market opening no-vigMarket closing no-vig
Sample157871578715786
Brier score0,25010,24080,2397
Log loss0,69590,67440,6721

Calibration

BucketPočetPrůměrná predikceSkutečná četnostRozdíl
0–10%137,24 %30,77 %23,53 %
10–20%6516,05 %40,00 %23,95 %
20–30%31126,82 %39,23 %12,41 %
30–40%187936,20 %42,63 %6,43 %
40–50%431045,18 %46,22 %1,04 %
50–60%403454,89 %52,13 %-2,75 %
60–70%297164,67 %57,49 %-7,18 %
70–80%159974,40 %61,48 %-12,92 %
80–90%54484,35 %67,46 %-16,89 %
90–100%6192,99 %78,69 %-14,30 %

Paper betting

BetsWin rateStakedProfit/LossROIAverage oddsAverage EVMarket closing movementROI CI 95%
817449,98 %817 400,00-42 975,00-5,26 %1,942617,24 %— % (0)-7,43 % až -3,22 %

Breakdown podle Liga

LigaPredictionsAvg predicted pBrierLog lossBetsWin rateProfit/LossROI
England Championship750050,00 %0,25170,6975155648,14 %-9 944,00-6,39 %
England Premier League522050,00 %0,24660,6873117148,59 %-6 017,00-5,14 %
France Ligue 1449850,00 %0,24810,6905105548,82 %-5 265,00-4,99 %
Germany Bundesliga410450,00 %0,24700,6963130656,51 %-3 421,00-2,62 %
Italy Serie A510850,00 %0,25980,7169190649,69 %-11 832,00-6,21 %
Spain La Liga514450,00 %0,24580,6862118048,05 %-6 496,00-5,51 %

Breakdown podle Sezona

SezonaPredictionsAvg predicted pBrierLog lossBetsWin rateProfit/LossROI
1920394450,00 %0,25080,7017115551,86 %-4 868,00-4,21 %
2021463250,00 %0,25230,7017120651,33 %-5 634,00-4,67 %
2122465850,00 %0,25160,6985119850,75 %-7 333,00-6,12 %
2223468650,00 %0,25430,7043130749,81 %-7 730,00-5,91 %
2324453850,00 %0,24640,6878124247,26 %-9 664,00-7,78 %
2425455850,00 %0,24510,6843106350,05 %-2 418,00-2,27 %
2526455850,00 %0,25000,6937100348,75 %-5 328,00-5,31 %

Breakdown podle Selection

SelectionPredictionsAvg predicted pBrierLog lossBetsWin rateProfit/LossROI
over_2_51578754,24 %0,25010,6959529351,09 %-26 758,00-5,06 %
under_2_51578745,76 %0,25010,6959288147,93 %-16 217,00-5,63 %

EV buckets

EV bucketCandidatesSimulated betsWin rateAverage oddsROI
below_0194360— %—— %
0–2%12840— %—— %
2–5%17750— %—— %
5–7.5%1411129150,50 %1,9164-5,42 %
7.5–10%1229109251,37 %1,9231-3,33 %
10–15%2024178749,92 %1,9181-6,29 %
15%+4415400449,45 %1,9674-5,27 %

Config snapshot

{
    "warmup_matches": 5,
    "strength_floor": 0.05,
    "league_goal_baseline": 1.35,
    "home_advantage": 1.1,
    "reference_provider_column": "AVG",
    "reference_representation": "average",
    "reference_odds_phase": "opening",
    "flat_stake": 100,
    "filters": {
        "min_ev": 0.05,
        "min_odds": 1.5,
        "max_odds": 3,
        "min_confidence": 0
    },
    "run_key": "80872a5d-b1d0-469b-963f-a54a331994c5",
    "provider": "football-data",
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