Backtest #5
HISTORICAL BACKTEST – NEJDE O SKUTEČNÉ LIVE SÁZENÍ
Run key: 80872a5d-b1d0-469b-963f-a54a331994c5 · Stav: completed · 21.08.2026 14:27:53
Diagnostický report fáze 2.5 zatím nebyl vytvořen. Spouští se příkazem php artisan football-data:diagnose --run=5.
Eligible events15787
Predictions31574
Paper bets8174
ROI-5,26 %
Dataset a metodika
| Model | football-ou25-poisson-v1 |
| Soutěže | E0, E1, D1, SP1, I1, F1 |
| Sezony | 1920, 2021, 2122, 2223, 2324, 2425, 2526 |
| Provider dataset hash | 1f3142723dc859f38bda127604988247cb39fb8404c0e88c82710d5e1ec2d383 |
| Warm-up | 5 předchozích zápasů týmu |
| Reference odds | Football-Data Avg O/U 2.5 opening pair; closing Avg pair is used only for market closing movement. |
| Exclusions | warm-up 534, chybějící reference odds 2 |
Prediction quality vs market baseline
| Metric | Poisson v1 | Market opening no-vig | Market closing no-vig |
| Sample | 15787 | 15787 | 15786 |
| Brier score | 0,2501 | 0,2408 | 0,2397 |
| Log loss | 0,6959 | 0,6744 | 0,6721 |
Calibration
| Bucket | Počet | Průměrná predikce | Skutečná četnost | Rozdíl |
| 0–10% | 13 | 7,24 % | 30,77 % | 23,53 % |
| 10–20% | 65 | 16,05 % | 40,00 % | 23,95 % |
| 20–30% | 311 | 26,82 % | 39,23 % | 12,41 % |
| 30–40% | 1879 | 36,20 % | 42,63 % | 6,43 % |
| 40–50% | 4310 | 45,18 % | 46,22 % | 1,04 % |
| 50–60% | 4034 | 54,89 % | 52,13 % | -2,75 % |
| 60–70% | 2971 | 64,67 % | 57,49 % | -7,18 % |
| 70–80% | 1599 | 74,40 % | 61,48 % | -12,92 % |
| 80–90% | 544 | 84,35 % | 67,46 % | -16,89 % |
| 90–100% | 61 | 92,99 % | 78,69 % | -14,30 % |
Paper betting
| Bets | Win rate | Staked | Profit/Loss | ROI | Average odds | Average EV | Market closing movement | ROI CI 95% |
| 8174 | 49,98 % | 817 400,00 | -42 975,00 | -5,26 % | 1,9426 | 17,24 % | — % (0) | -7,43 % až -3,22 % |
Breakdown podle Liga
| Liga | Predictions | Avg predicted p | Brier | Log loss | Bets | Win rate | Profit/Loss | ROI |
| England Championship | 7500 | 50,00 % | 0,2517 | 0,6975 | 1556 | 48,14 % | -9 944,00 | -6,39 % |
| England Premier League | 5220 | 50,00 % | 0,2466 | 0,6873 | 1171 | 48,59 % | -6 017,00 | -5,14 % |
| France Ligue 1 | 4498 | 50,00 % | 0,2481 | 0,6905 | 1055 | 48,82 % | -5 265,00 | -4,99 % |
| Germany Bundesliga | 4104 | 50,00 % | 0,2470 | 0,6963 | 1306 | 56,51 % | -3 421,00 | -2,62 % |
| Italy Serie A | 5108 | 50,00 % | 0,2598 | 0,7169 | 1906 | 49,69 % | -11 832,00 | -6,21 % |
| Spain La Liga | 5144 | 50,00 % | 0,2458 | 0,6862 | 1180 | 48,05 % | -6 496,00 | -5,51 % |
Breakdown podle Sezona
| Sezona | Predictions | Avg predicted p | Brier | Log loss | Bets | Win rate | Profit/Loss | ROI |
| 1920 | 3944 | 50,00 % | 0,2508 | 0,7017 | 1155 | 51,86 % | -4 868,00 | -4,21 % |
| 2021 | 4632 | 50,00 % | 0,2523 | 0,7017 | 1206 | 51,33 % | -5 634,00 | -4,67 % |
| 2122 | 4658 | 50,00 % | 0,2516 | 0,6985 | 1198 | 50,75 % | -7 333,00 | -6,12 % |
| 2223 | 4686 | 50,00 % | 0,2543 | 0,7043 | 1307 | 49,81 % | -7 730,00 | -5,91 % |
| 2324 | 4538 | 50,00 % | 0,2464 | 0,6878 | 1242 | 47,26 % | -9 664,00 | -7,78 % |
| 2425 | 4558 | 50,00 % | 0,2451 | 0,6843 | 1063 | 50,05 % | -2 418,00 | -2,27 % |
| 2526 | 4558 | 50,00 % | 0,2500 | 0,6937 | 1003 | 48,75 % | -5 328,00 | -5,31 % |
Breakdown podle Selection
| Selection | Predictions | Avg predicted p | Brier | Log loss | Bets | Win rate | Profit/Loss | ROI |
| over_2_5 | 15787 | 54,24 % | 0,2501 | 0,6959 | 5293 | 51,09 % | -26 758,00 | -5,06 % |
| under_2_5 | 15787 | 45,76 % | 0,2501 | 0,6959 | 2881 | 47,93 % | -16 217,00 | -5,63 % |
EV buckets
| EV bucket | Candidates | Simulated bets | Win rate | Average odds | ROI |
| below_0 | 19436 | 0 | — % | — | — % |
| 0–2% | 1284 | 0 | — % | — | — % |
| 2–5% | 1775 | 0 | — % | — | — % |
| 5–7.5% | 1411 | 1291 | 50,50 % | 1,9164 | -5,42 % |
| 7.5–10% | 1229 | 1092 | 51,37 % | 1,9231 | -3,33 % |
| 10–15% | 2024 | 1787 | 49,92 % | 1,9181 | -6,29 % |
| 15%+ | 4415 | 4004 | 49,45 % | 1,9674 | -5,27 % |
Config snapshot
{
"warmup_matches": 5,
"strength_floor": 0.05,
"league_goal_baseline": 1.35,
"home_advantage": 1.1,
"reference_provider_column": "AVG",
"reference_representation": "average",
"reference_odds_phase": "opening",
"flat_stake": 100,
"filters": {
"min_ev": 0.05,
"min_odds": 1.5,
"max_odds": 3,
"min_confidence": 0
},
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"provider": "football-data",
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