Backtest #3

Run key: 30e6b697-53d9-4f61-af5e-0d6e48f4997d · Stav: failed · 21.08.2026 14:23:20

Diagnostický report fáze 2.5 zatím nebyl vytvořen. Spouští se příkazem php artisan football-data:diagnose --run=3.

Eligible events0

Predictions0

Paper bets0

ROI— %

Dataset a metodika

Model	football-ou25-poisson-v1
Soutěže	E0, E1, D1, SP1, I1, F1
Sezony	1920, 2021, 2122, 2223, 2324, 2425, 2526
Provider dataset hash	`1f3142723dc859f38bda127604988247cb39fb8404c0e88c82710d5e1ec2d383`
Warm-up	— předchozích zápasů týmu
Reference odds	—
Exclusions	warm-up 0, chybějící reference odds 0

Prediction quality vs market baseline

Metric	Poisson v1	Market opening no-vig	Market closing no-vig
Sample	0	0	0
Brier score	—	—	—
Log loss	—	—	—

Calibration

Bucket	Počet	Průměrná predikce	Skutečná četnost	Rozdíl

Paper betting

Bets	Win rate	Staked	Profit/Loss	ROI	Average odds	Average EV	Market closing movement	ROI CI 95%
0	— %	0,00	0,00	— %	—	— %	— % (0)	— % až — %

Breakdown podle Liga

Liga	Predictions	Avg predicted p	Brier	Log loss	Bets	Win rate	Profit/Loss	ROI

Breakdown podle Sezona

Sezona	Predictions	Avg predicted p	Brier	Log loss	Bets	Win rate	Profit/Loss	ROI

Breakdown podle Selection

Selection	Predictions	Avg predicted p	Brier	Log loss	Bets	Win rate	Profit/Loss	ROI

EV buckets

EV bucket	Candidates	Simulated bets	Win rate	Average odds	ROI

Config snapshot

{
    "warmup_matches": 5,
    "strength_floor": 0.05,
    "league_goal_baseline": 1.35,
    "home_advantage": 1.1,
    "reference_provider_column": "AVG",
    "reference_representation": "average",
    "reference_odds_phase": "opening",
    "flat_stake": 100,
    "filters": {
        "min_ev": 0.05,
        "min_odds": 1.5,
        "max_odds": 3,
        "min_confidence": 0
    },
    "run_key": "30e6b697-53d9-4f61-af5e-0d6e48f4997d",
    "provider": "football-data",
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}