Backtest #2

Run key: b8ceb2c6-91a7-473a-9a79-ec988e1669df · Stav: completed · 21.08.2026 14:08:24

Diagnostický report fáze 2.5 zatím nebyl vytvořen. Spouští se příkazem php artisan football-data:diagnose --run=2.

Eligible events330

Predictions660

Paper bets182

ROI-9,87 %

Dataset a metodika

Model	football-ou25-poisson-v1
Soutěže	E0
Sezony	1920
Provider dataset hash	`d21ce0cae53a5b04ceb37c2763261aba88d49095875c4edf5dcafbb41ad74334`
Warm-up	5 předchozích zápasů týmu
Reference odds	Football-Data Avg O/U 2.5 opening pair; closing Avg pair is used only for market closing movement.
Exclusions	warm-up 50, chybějící reference odds 0

Prediction quality vs market baseline

Metric	Poisson v1	Market opening no-vig	Market closing no-vig
Sample	330	0	0
Brier score	0,2532	—	—
Log loss	0,7049	—	—

Calibration

Bucket	Počet	Průměrná predikce	Skutečná četnost	Rozdíl
0–10%	0	— %	— %	— %
10–20%	0	— %	— %	— %
20–30%	7	25,64 %	57,14 %	31,50 %
30–40%	44	35,40 %	38,64 %	3,24 %
40–50%	61	45,34 %	45,90 %	0,56 %
50–60%	83	55,75 %	44,58 %	-11,17 %
60–70%	77	65,11 %	62,34 %	-2,78 %
70–80%	40	74,65 %	60,00 %	-14,65 %
80–90%	14	84,21 %	57,14 %	-27,06 %
90–100%	4	94,79 %	75,00 %	-19,79 %

Paper betting

Bets	Win rate	Staked	Profit/Loss	ROI	Average odds	Average EV	Market closing movement	ROI CI 95%
182	48,90 %	18 200,00	-1 797,00	-9,87 %	1,8794	16,12 %	— % (0)	-24,23 % až 3,91 %

Breakdown podle Liga

Liga	Predictions	Avg predicted p	Brier	Log loss	Bets	Win rate	Profit/Loss	ROI
England Premier League	660	— %	0,2532	0,7049	182	48,90 %	-1 797,00	-9,87 %

Breakdown podle Sezona

Sezona	Predictions	Avg predicted p	Brier	Log loss	Bets	Win rate	Profit/Loss	ROI
1920	660	— %	0,2532	0,7049	182	48,90 %	-1 797,00	-9,87 %

Breakdown podle Selection

Selection	Predictions	Avg predicted p	Brier	Log loss	Bets	Win rate	Profit/Loss	ROI
over_2_5	330	— %	0,2532	0,7049	111	50,45 %	-1 105,00	-9,95 %
under_2_5	330	— %	0,2532	0,7049	71	46,48 %	-692,00	-9,75 %

EV buckets

EV bucket	Candidates	Simulated bets	Win rate	Average odds	ROI
below_0	384	0	— %	—	— %
0–2%	23	0	— %	—	— %
2–5%	46	0	— %	—	— %
5–7.5%	34	31	45,16 %	1,8332	-20,29 %
7.5–10%	25	20	50,00 %	1,8095	-16,05 %
10–15%	54	50	42,00 %	1,8284	-24,42 %
15%+	94	81	54,32 %	1,9458	4,62 %

Config snapshot

{
    "warmup_matches": 5,
    "strength_floor": 0.05,
    "league_goal_baseline": 1.35,
    "home_advantage": 1.1,
    "reference_provider_column": "AVG",
    "reference_representation": "average",
    "reference_odds_phase": "opening",
    "flat_stake": 100,
    "filters": {
        "min_ev": 0.05,
        "min_odds": 1.5,
        "max_odds": 3,
        "min_confidence": 0
    },
    "run_key": "b8ceb2c6-91a7-473a-9a79-ec988e1669df",
    "provider": "football-data",
    "provider_dataset_ids": [
        1
    ],
    "provider_dataset_hashes": [
        "100037618b94f94057400bb02bf6bac4ef74ddaa58cde4b38370839c39caee61"
    ],
    "provider_run_ids": [
        1,
        2,
        3,
        4
    ]
}